PROGNOSE - USA: Forbrugerpriser ses stige 0,2 pct - kl. 14:30

De amerikanske forbrugerpriser ventes at vise en stigning på 0,2 pct. i september, når tallet offentliggøres kl. 14:30. Kerne-CPI, der ikke medregner de volatile priser på fødevarer og energi, ventes ligeledes at stige 0,2 pct.

Herunder følger kommentarer fra økonomer:

Danske Bank: De amerikanske producentprisdata for september var ikke opmuntrende: Færdigvarepriser eksklusiv energi og fødevarer steg med 0,3% på måneden. Det bliver interessant at se, om det også kan ses i forbrugerpriserne (CPI) på varer i dag, om end måned-til-måned-sammenhængen mellem de to statistikker er svag. Det ændrer dog ikke ved, at varepriserne i CPI fortsat vil følge den tiltagende inflation i producentpriserne, vi har set det seneste år, og at der derfor hele tiden er en latent risiko for, at CPI overrasker opad på varesiden.

Credit Suisse First Boston: We expect a tame CPI for September. The headline and core each could rise modestly compared to August. Core inflation should stay near the 1¾% YoY rate of the last five months. Headline inflation looks to ease to about a 2½% YoY rate. Consumer goods prices might drop again, limiting the core’s upside.

RBC Capital Markets: Tick up expected, if due only to the fact that CPI has surprised to the downside in each of the past three months, and that the last time CPI registered 0.1% four months consecutively was late-'02 - early-'03, when deflation concerns were rampant. A core print above 0.2% would likely cause rates and the USD to rise while a print of 0.1% or less would have a significant opposite effect.

HVB Group: Gasoline prices normally ease in September. They didn’t this year. However, the major advance in energy prices is yet to come. Newly released data on agricultural prices show a sudden tightening in the markets. The hurricanes disrupted food shipments, as well. So the headline rate is likely to move up a little faster than the core rate.